Cotton futures held firm around 66 cents per pound after a bullish government report signaled a tighter domestic supply, though falling oil prices presented a potential headwind for the natural fiber.
CHICAGO – Cotton futures were trading around 66 cents per pound, finding support after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) significantly tightened its outlook for domestic supply in its latest report.
The USDA slashed its forecast for 2025/26 ending stocks by 1 million bales, bringing the new estimate to 3.6 million bales. The agency also cut its domestic production forecast to 13.2 million bales, reinforcing the view of a smaller-than-expected crop and tighter inventories ahead.
On the demand side, the USDA’s weekly export sales report on Thursday showed steady international interest. The report detailed exports of 142,600 running bales, with primary destinations including Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, Mexico, and Bangladesh. Furthermore, net sales of upland cotton for the 2025/2026 season totaled a solid 242,000 running bales.
However, a potential factor capping gains in the cotton market came from a decline in oil prices, as traders awaited the outcome of talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Lower crude oil prices are a bearish signal for cotton because they reduce the cost of producing polyester, a key synthetic fiber that competes directly with cotton in the textile industry.
