CHICAGO – Corn futures rose past $3.80 per bushel this week, staging a firm rebound from a multi-year low as fears of an overwhelming U.S. harvest began to subside, supported by robust export demand and growing weather concerns in the American Midwest.
The rally marks a significant shift in market sentiment, which had been pressured earlier in August by a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report that maintained a forecast for a record U.S. crop. That projection had sent prices tumbling to $3.75 on August 12th, the lowest level seen since late 2020.
However, market attention has now pivoted to late-season weather conditions. Hotter and drier weather across parts of the western Corn Belt is raising concerns about crop yields during the critical grain-filling stage. This has eroded confidence in earlier trend-line yield projections, a sentiment reflected in softer official crop condition ratings and more conservative private forecasts.
Bolstering prices further, weekly U.S. export sales data came in stronger than expected. Combined commitments for old and new crops neared 2.0 million tonnes, marking the most robust sales figure in weeks and signaling healthy international demand for U.S. corn.
Beyond the United States, the global supply outlook appears less secure than mid-summer projections had implied. While Brazil is still moving its large secondary “safrinha” crop to market, the forecast for Argentina’s upcoming 2024-2025 harvest has already been reduced, and export flows from the region have been uneven, adding another layer of support to global corn prices.
